By 2025, Hong Kong's real estate market will emerge from its low point and welcome a warming trend

The official data released by the Land Registry of the Hong Kong SAR Government clearly outlines the strong trend of the real estate market recovery: the overall number of registered building purchase and sale contracts reached 80702 in 2025, not only setting a new high in the past four years, but also achieving a significant year-on-year growth of 18.7%; The total transaction value increased synchronously, reaching HKD 614.277 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15%. Both core indicators have significantly increased, which intuitively confirms the comprehensive recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market and also marks the full activation effect of policies on the market since the comprehensive "withdrawal" in 2024.

Looking back to February 2024, the Hong Kong SAR government officially announced the revocation of all residential property demand management measures (commonly known as "withdrawal"), the cancellation of additional stamp duty, buyer stamp duty, and new residential stamp duty restrictions, and the complete removal of transaction cost barriers that have suppressed the market for many years, pressing the "acceleration button" for the recovery of the real estate market. After two years of policy transmission and market digestion, this dividend will be concentrated and released in 2025, which not only activates the suppressed local demand for home purchases, but also attracts a large number of non local buyers to enter, injecting fresh vitality into the real estate market.

The trend of rising real estate prices is not only reflected in the overall increase in transaction data, but also permeates into various sub sectors of the market. Among them, the performance of the residential market is particularly outstanding, with a transaction volume of 20000 first-hand private residential properties in Hong Kong by 2025, setting a new high since the implementation of the "first-hand new regulations"; The luxury housing market also performed well, with 262 transactions of private residential properties priced at HKD 100 million or above, setting a new historical high. The total transaction amount reached HKD 53.1 billion, demonstrating the strong recovery momentum of the high-end market. At the same time, the Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL), which reflects second-hand property prices, rebounded to 144.11 points, an annual increase of 4.70%, reversing the decline of the past three years and achieving a dual track increase in property prices and rents.

The rebound of Hong Kong's real estate market in 2025 is not driven by a single policy, but rather the result of the resonance of multiple favorable factors. In addition to the continued efforts of the "de spicy" policy, the safe haven nature of physical assets is highlighted against the backdrop of the depreciation of the US dollar. Hong Kong property prices still have some room for adjustment compared to their high levels in 2021, with both preservation and appreciation potential, attracting a large number of investors to take advantage of the low price to absorb. At the same time, the opening of the interest rate reduction cycle has reduced the cost of mortgage payments, and the "over renting" effect has reappeared, further stimulating the willingness of citizens to rent, buy, and exchange properties, and promoting the sustained release of self occupied demand. In addition, the local economic recovery trend in Hong Kong is clear, and the wealth effect brought about by the rebound of Hong Kong stocks, GDP growth, and per capita income increase has also provided solid support for the recovery of the real estate market.

It is worth noting that during the process of the real estate market heating up, there are also obvious structural differentiation characteristics. From a regional perspective, areas with solid demand for self occupied housing and active transactions such as Kowloon and New Territories East have shown outstanding performance, while some traditional luxury residential areas have lagged behind in their recovery due to high total prices and slow transaction pace; From the perspective of housing estates, the prices of mid to low end estates with active transactions and practical layouts have recovered relatively quickly, with some estates experiencing a price increase of over 10% per square foot, while a few high-end estates still have a slight decline. This differentiation trend also indicates that the recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market is steadily advancing and there has not been a phenomenon of blind overheating.