Hong Kong real estate market: Transactions hit a multi-year high, property prices are stable but rising

1、 S&P forecast: Trading hits bottom and rebounds, breaking 20000 transactions in two consecutive years

In September 2025, S&P Global released a report on the Hong Kong real estate market, clearly expressing optimism about the performance of first-hand residential transactions in the next two years. The report predicts that the transaction volume of first-hand residential properties in Hong Kong will reach 20000 units in both 2025 and 2026, a significant increase from 16912 units in 2024 and a year-on-year increase of over 18%, setting a new high for annual transaction volume since 2019.

Despite the market still facing supply pressure, unsold inventory remains at a high level of 27000 units, and over 20000 new units are expected to be completed by 2026. However, S&P believes that the three core factors of low interest rate environment, continuous rent increase, and policy support will effectively support market demand resilience. At the same time, a large backlog of demand for improved and essential housing is gradually being released, driving steady recovery in transactions. Adequate supply will suppress the short-term sharp rise in property prices, and the market as a whole presents a moderate recovery pattern of "volume increase and price stability".

2、 Data confirms recovery: Price index rises for 8 consecutive months, new transactions break record

Official and private data have comprehensively verified the recovery trend of the Hong Kong real estate market, with prices and transactions recovering synchronously. The Hong Kong Rating and Valuation Department announced that the private residential price index for January 2026 was 301.4 points, an increase of 0.5% month on month, marking the eighth consecutive month of increase and a year-on-year increase of 4.9%, setting a new 19 month high. Among them, the price index of small and medium-sized units (below 100 square meters) rose to 303.2 points, a month on month increase of 0.53%; The index of large units (100 square meters and above) reached 272.6 points, a month on month increase of 0.74%, indicating a gradual release of demand for improvement.

Private indicators are also improving, with the Central Plains City Leading Index (CCL) released by Zhongyuan Real Estate rising to 139.39 points, reflecting the continued increase in activity in the second-hand housing market. The performance of the first-hand market is even more impressive. In 2025, the trading volume of new listings in Hong Kong exceeded 20000, reaching 20525, a year-on-year increase of 21.7%, marking the first time in 12 years that it exceeded the 20000 mark. The total transaction amount reached HKD 225.55 billion, a new high since 2019. The pace of developers pushing their properties has accelerated, with single quarter transaction volumes exceeding 5000 in all three quarters of the year, and the market heat continues to heat up.

3、 Clear recovery logic: low interest rates+policies+rent increases, supporting demand resilience

The recovery of the Hong Kong property market is not accidental, but the result of multiple favorable factors working together. Firstly, the low interest rate environment continues to benefit the market, with the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut cycle beginning, Hong Kong's mortgage rates synchronously declining, and the cost of buying a house significantly reduced, stimulating the entry of demand for essential goods and investment into the market. Secondly, the policy support is sufficient, and the Hong Kong SAR government continues to optimize its real estate policies, relax restrictions on home purchases, reduce transaction taxes and fees, effectively unleash market vitality, and boost market confidence.

In addition, the continuous rise in rent further supports the demand for the real estate market. In January 2026, the private residential rent index was 201.1 points, up 0.3% month on month and 4.3% year-on-year, setting a new record for three consecutive months. The increase in rental return rate attracts investors to enter, while also driving some rental groups to turn to the housing market, forming a demand migration of "rent to buy" and further consolidating the demand foundation of the real estate market.