Mainland buyers continue to shop, second-hand supply hits six-year low: Hong Kong property market supply-demand imbalance intensifies

1、 Mainland buyers: Exceeding 1000 cases for 12 consecutive months, leading the luxury housing market

According to data from the Comprehensive Land Registry of Meilian Property Research Center, in February 2026, mainland buyers registered 1365 cases in the primary and secondary residential market in Hong Kong, with a transaction amount of HKD 15.58 billion, an increase of 10.4% and 23.1% respectively compared to the previous month. This data sets two records: breaking a thousand transactions in a single month for 12 consecutive months, and exceeding HKD 10 billion in monthly transactions for 9 consecutive months, making it the longest active period since statistics began in 2010.

The absolute mainstay of new properties: Mainland buyers account for about 58% of the new property market, with a transaction amount of HKD 9.56 billion for first-hand properties, accounting for 61.4% of the total transactions. Their purchasing power is highly concentrated in new projects.

Dominated by the luxury housing market: Mainland buyers account for nearly 70% of first-hand luxury homes priced over HKD 50 million, and show a trend of "the higher the price, the larger the proportion", becoming the core support of the high-end market.

Popular areas: Kai Tak District leads with a transaction amount of HKD 2.43 billion, followed closely by Central and Western District (HKD 1.75 billion) and Sai Kung District (HKD 1.03 billion), becoming the main flow of funds in mainland China.

2、 Second hand market: Supply hits six-year low, may fall below 25000 units within the year

In sharp contrast to the hot transactions, the supply of second-hand residential properties in Hong Kong continues to shrink, and the phenomenon of market shortage is becoming increasingly severe.

Supply data: Currently, there are about 28000 second-hand listings for sale in Hong Kong, a new low in nearly 6 years and a significant decrease of 26% year-on-year.

Trend prediction: Based on the current pace of delisting, the volume of second-hand listings may fall below 25000 units within the year, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance.

Market impact: Supply shortage directly leads to a narrowing of second-hand bargaining space and a shortened transaction cycle, while driving buyers to turn to first-hand new properties, further increasing the popularity and price of new properties.

3、 Supply and demand imbalance: Mainland purchasing power+supply shortage, dual driving market upward trend

The strong recovery of the Hong Kong property market in this round lies in the dual resonance of "strong demand+insufficient supply".

1. Demand side: triple drive of policy, exchange rate, and asset allocation

Policy dividend: In 2024, Hong Kong will comprehensively "withdraw from the market", cancel the additional stamp duty for non local buyers, significantly reduce the cost of purchasing a house, and significantly lower the entry threshold for mainland buyers.

Exchange rate advantage: The strengthening of the RMB to Hong Kong dollar exchange rate has increased the purchasing power of mainland buyers, highlighting the cost-effectiveness of Hong Kong assets.

Asset allocation demand: As an international financial center, Hong Kong's properties have both residential, investment, and identity planning value, making them an important choice for global asset allocation for high net worth individuals in mainland China.

2. Supply side: Structural shortage, difficult to alleviate in the short term

The strong reluctance of second-hand property owners to sell, coupled with insufficient supply during the previous market adjustment period, has resulted in the current second-hand inventory being at a historical low.

Although the supply of first-hand new properties has increased, it is difficult to fully fill the gap in second-hand properties, and the proportion of high-end projects has increased, further pushing up the overall market average price.