H is about to reach its peak: the pressure of building supply is expected to ease

1、 Continuous decline and peak of interbank lending rates: capital influx resonates with market weakness

The decline of HIBOR in this round is mainly due to the dual effects of geopolitical safe haven capital inflows and weak local market demand. The situation in the Middle East remains tense, with some international funds seeking safe haven and flooding into the Hong Kong market; At the same time, the weak performance of Hong Kong stocks, sluggish credit demand, and lack of effective investment channels for funds have led to ample liquidity in the Hong Kong dollar, resulting in a continuous decrease in interbank borrowing costs.

Since March 9th, the one month HIBOR has significantly fallen from the February average of 2.48%, and officially fell below the 2% mark to 1.95% on March 23rd, just one step away from breaking below the cap interest rate. Calculated according to the mainstream H plan:

Current status: 1.95 basis points (HIBOR)+1.3 basis points=3.25 basis points (capped interest rate), the interest rate has reached the upper limit.

Future outlook: If HIBOR falls below 1.95%, the actual interest rate will be lower than 3.25%, and monthly supply will decrease accordingly.

2、 Cost estimation for mortgage payments: For every 0.1% drop in interest rates, monthly mortgage payments can save hundreds of yuan

If the interest rate of H falls below the ceiling, it will directly be converted into real money for the owners to reduce their burden. Taking the common loan size as an example (loan of HKD 5 million, repayment period of 30 years): Calculated at a maximum interest rate of 3.25%, the monthly payment is approximately HKD 21760. If HIBOR falls to 1.85%, the actual interest rate will be 3.15%, and the monthly supply will decrease to about HKD 21480, resulting in a shortfall of HKD 280 per month. If HIBOR further drops to 1.75%, the actual interest rate will be 3.05%, with a monthly payment of approximately HKD 21200, resulting in a cumulative monthly savings of HKD 560. For high debt households, the long-term cumulative burden reduction effect will be more significant.

3、 Market impact: favorable for homeowners, may slightly boost demand in the real estate market

The impact of the downward trend in H-rated interest rates on the market is mainly reflected in two aspects: firstly, reducing the burden on existing homeowners: over 70% of new mortgages in Hong Kong are H-rated, and the downward trend in interest rates will directly reduce the monthly payment pressure on these homeowners, alleviate financial burden, and reduce the risk of default. The second is to stimulate the new and second-hand markets: the decrease in mortgage costs will enhance buyers' purchasing power and confidence in entering the market, especially for first-time homebuyers and homebuyers, which is expected to drive a moderate rebound in real estate transaction volume.

However, mortgage experts remind that the short-term fluctuations of HIBOR are greatly affected by the funding situation, and there is still uncertainty in the medium and long term factors such as US monetary policy and local bank balances. Homeowners and buyers need to continue to pay attention to interest rate trends and plan their finances rationally.