The remaining volume of first-hand goods has fallen to a three-and-a-half-year low: the recovery momentum of the Hong Kong real estate market continues to strengthen

1、 Data verification: The tail end of goods has been falling continuously for 13 months, and the trend of destocking has entered the fast lane

The drop in the volume of first-hand goods to a three-and-a-half-year low this time is a concentrated reflection of the gradual recovery of the Hong Kong property market from its low point. Since 2024, with the gradual recovery of market confidence and the increasing willingness of buyers to enter the market, the pace of selling new properties has significantly accelerated, and the tail volume of goods has continued to decline from high levels. As of February 2026, the inventory size of 16458 units has significantly decreased from its previous high, successfully escaping the dilemma of "high inventory and slow turnover".

From the perspective of market transactions, the rapid decline in tail volume corresponds sharply with active first-hand trading. In the first quarter of 2026, the first-hand residential market in Hong Kong recorded over 5300 transactions, a year-on-year increase of 20%, setting a new high in transaction volume for the first quarter of nearly 7 years. Several popular new properties have been highly sought after since their launch, such as the Sunrise City Hoi Wan I project in Tseung Kwan O. The first price list sold 254 units and received over 2700 tickets, oversubscribed by nearly 10 times, with some units reaching new highs in price per square foot. The trend of "opening and clearing" and "rapid elimination" of new stocks has become the norm, directly driving the continuous decline of cargo volume and officially entering the fast lane of market elimination.

2、 Deep logic: multiple positive resonances, supply and demand relationships tend to be healthy

The continuous decline in the volume of first-hand goods is not driven by a single factor, but rather the result of multiple favorable factors such as policies, interest rates, demand, and supply resonating. Behind it is the fundamental improvement of the supply and demand relationship in the Hong Kong real estate market.

（1） The interest reduction cycle has begun, and the cost of real estate has significantly decreased

The decline in interest rates is the core engine that activates market purchasing power. Starting from the second half of 2025, Hong Kong will enter a period of interest rate reduction, with the prime rate gradually decreasing. Banks will simultaneously launch various mortgage discounts, significantly reducing buyers' purchasing costs and monthly payment pressures. For first-time and improvement oriented buyers, reducing interest rates directly enhances the affordability of home purchases. Coupled with the continuous increase in rent, the concentrated release of demand for "subletting for buying" has become an important force in promoting the elimination of new properties and digesting inventory.

（2） Talent policies are being strengthened, and there is a continuous influx of new demand

Hong Kong's talent policies such as "Gaocai Tong" and "Youcai Plan" continue to make efforts to attract a large number of mainland and overseas professionals to develop in Hong Kong, bringing a continuous stream of new demand to the housing market. This group of people are mostly young professionals with strong purchasing power, and tend to rent first and then buy. With stable living in Hong Kong, they gradually transform into a core customer group of first-hand new properties. Data shows that the proportion of mainland professionals in multiple new property transactions has steadily increased, with improved units such as 3-bedroom units being particularly popular, effectively absorbing market stock and new supply.

（3） Supply structure optimization, short-term pressure relief, long-term orderliness

From the supply side, the current market presents a healthy pattern of "short-term inventory depletion and long-term orderly supply". On the one hand, the remaining inventory of first-hand goods has fallen to a three-and-a-half-year low, significantly easing short-term supply pressure. Developers no longer need to use the "price for quantity" approach to reduce inventory, and pricing is becoming more rational; On the other hand, data from the Hong Kong Budget shows that the potential supply of first-hand private housing in the next three to four years is about 104000 units, which will continue to decline from the high in March 2024, avoiding the risk of oversupply and providing guarantees for the smooth operation of the market.