The expected increase in Hong Kong housing prices in 2026 has been significantly raised

1、 JPMorgan Chase: Significantly increases price to 10% -15%, predicts industry enters' expansion period '

JPMorgan recently released a research report that significantly adjusted its forecast for Hong Kong housing price increases in 2026, from the original 5% -7% to 10% -15%. The increase is significant, and it is expected that Hong Kong housing prices will continue to steadily rise by about 5% in 2027, demonstrating firm confidence in the long-term trend of the Hong Kong property market.

The bank clearly stated that the Hong Kong real estate industry has officially entered the "expansion period" from the "early stage of recovery", and this judgment is backed by solid market support. Since the comprehensive "withdrawal" of Hong Kong in 2024, transaction costs have been significantly reduced, and the long suppressed demand for home purchases continues to be released. In 2025, the overall registration volume of building purchase and sale contracts in Hong Kong reached 80702, a new high in nearly four years, laying a solid foundation for industry expansion. In addition, multiple factors such as the wealth effect brought about by the resilience of the stock market, stable demand from mainland buyers, and the recovery of the financial industry have jointly driven the sustained rebound of Hong Kong housing prices, which has also become the core basis for JPMorgan Chase's upward forecast.

2、 Goldman Sachs: Up to 12%, 'subletting to buying' becomes an important growth driver

At the same time, Goldman Sachs also raised its forecast for Hong Kong housing price increases in 2026, raising the original 5% to 12%, forming a bullish consensus with JPMorgan Chase, further strengthening market expectations for a rebound in the Hong Kong property market. Unlike JPMorgan's assessment of industry cycles, Goldman Sachs' forecast focuses more on structural changes on the market demand side.

Goldman Sachs pointed out in its report that while rental prices in Hong Kong continue to grow strongly, mortgage rates continue to decline. This combination effect may drive more people to shift from "renting" to "buying", forming a market trend of "subletting to buying", providing sustained demand support for the residential market. Data shows that from 2023 to 2025, the cumulative increase in residential rents in Hong Kong is about 20%. The decline in mortgage interest rates has gradually reduced the cost of mortgage payments, and in some areas, there has even been a phenomenon of "flat payments over rentals", further lowering the threshold for home purchases and attracting more tenants to enter the market, becoming an important driving force behind the rise in housing prices.

3、 Multiple positive factors resonate, and the trend of real estate recovery is clear

The collective increase in housing price forecasts by two major investment banks is not accidental, but the inevitable result of the resonance of multiple favorable factors in the Hong Kong real estate market. In addition to the "spicy" policy, rising rents, and declining mortgage rates, the continued entry of mainland buyers has also injected strong momentum into the Hong Kong real estate market. In 2025, the total amount of Hong Kong residential properties purchased by mainland buyers reached a historical high of HKD 138 billion. In January 2026, the number of registered mainland buyers exceeded 1000 for 11 consecutive months, and the appreciation of the renminbi further enhanced the purchasing power of mainland buyers.

In addition, the sustained recovery of the Hong Kong economy, the rigid housing demand brought about by the talent input plan, and the continued activity of the luxury housing market have also jointly driven the heating up of the real estate market. Since the beginning of 2026, the sales volume of first-hand properties in Hong Kong has exceeded 1000 units for 13 consecutive months, with January sales reaching a new 15 month high. The second-hand market has also shown an active trend of "homeowners reversing prices and buyers chasing after price increases", with some properties increasing in value by more than 28% after 10 months of ownership, and market confidence continues to boost.