China's real estate market: The decline in second-hand housing prices has contracted for three consecutive months, and rents have slightly increased with the wave of returning workers

1、 Second hand housing market: Three consecutive declines, core cities welcome 'little spring'

In March, the domestic second-hand housing market showed a positive recovery trend, with the average price of second-hand housing in 100 cities falling by 0.34% month on month, narrowing the decline by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month. It has been the third consecutive month that the decline has narrowed, demonstrating the resilience of the market bottom. It is reported that the average price of second-hand residential properties in Baicheng is 12792 yuan/square meter, a year-on-year decrease of 8.55%. Although there is still a decline compared to the same period last year, there is a clear trend of improvement on a month on month basis.

The report points out that after the Lunar New Year, the real estate market in core cities has made significant efforts to recover, with second-hand property transactions continuing to outperform new properties, becoming the core driving force for market recovery. Among them, the average listing price of second-hand residential properties in Shanghai has increased month on month, ending the previous 33 month downward trend; The cumulative transaction volume of second-hand houses in Beijing and Shanghai both rebounded year-on-year in March, with a month on month increase of over 100%. Shanghai even set a new high for transaction volume in the same period of the past five years. At the same time, the number of newly listed second-hand houses in key cities has declined year-on-year, seller expectations have stabilized, bargaining space has narrowed, blind selling has decreased, homebuyers' wait-and-see sentiment has subsided, and their enthusiasm for entering the market has significantly increased.

2、 New housing market: structural growth, with high-end projects as the main support

Unlike the recovery of the second-hand housing market, the prices of newly built residential properties in March showed a structural upward trend, with the average price of new houses in 100 cities slightly increasing by 0.05% on a monthly basis and 2.24% year-on-year. The average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities reached 17115 yuan/square meter. The slight increase in new house prices this time is not a general increase, and the core driving force comes from the concentrated entry of high-end improvement projects into the market.

Since March, high-end improved real estate projects have entered the market in core cities such as Hangzhou, Shanghai, and Guangzhou, driving the overall average price of the new housing market to rise. Among them, the online signing transactions of high-end residential properties with a total price of over 30 million yuan in first tier cities increased by 14% year-on-year, breaking away from the trend of independent market. The supply of luxury homes with a total price of over 30 million yuan in Shenzhen is close to 50000 square meters, achieving a significant breakthrough from zero supply in the same period last year. A large amount of new supply has gradually transformed into online signing transactions, becoming an important support for the structural rise of new house prices.

3、 Rental market: The wave of returning workers has driven a slight increase, but it is still at a low level compared to the same period last year

Affected by the return to work movement after the Spring Festival, the concentrated release of demand in the domestic rental market has driven a slight rebound in residential rents. Data shows that in March, the average rent for residential properties in 50 cities was 34 yuan/square meter/month, a monthly increase of 0.09%, ending the previous sustained downturn and showing a seasonal recovery trend.

It is worth noting that the slight increase in rent this time mainly presents a "structural" feature, with significant increases in small-sized and commuting properties in the core area. The rent of some small-sized properties in the core area of Shenzhen has increased by 5% to 10%, and commuting properties near the office area have also seen a slight increase due to strong demand. "Just look and sign" has become the norm, and the rental volume in Shenzhen has increased by 36% compared to the same period last year after the holiday. However, in the long run, rents are still at a low level, with residential rents in 50 cities still falling by 3.65% year-on-year, and rents for urban villages, suburban areas, and large apartment units remaining relatively stable without significant increases.