New housing transactions in Hong Kong hit a 13 year high in the first quarter of 2026, with a surge of large customers shopping for goods

1、 Core data: Double record breaking trading volume and amount, lagging registration shows real popularity

The recovery of Hong Kong's new housing market has far exceeded expectations, and two sets of core data intuitively reflect the market heat. The transaction volume reached a new high in the same period of 2013. Due to the lag in sales registration, the actual new house transactions in the first quarter were 6300, far exceeding the level of the same period in previous years and significantly leading the performance since the implementation of the new regulations in 2013; The registration data has been synchronized and refreshed, with a total of 5373 transactions registered, involving a total amount of HKD 62.8 billion, an increase of 38% and 94% respectively year-on-year, both of which have reached new highs in the same period of previous years. Behind the data is a comprehensive return of confidence in the Hong Kong real estate market. With the expected implementation of interest rate cuts and improved market liquidity, buyers' willingness to enter the market has significantly increased, and the new housing market has become the core engine of this round of recovery.

2、 Core motivation: Resonance between expected interest rate cuts and liquidity, catalyzed by multiple positive factors

The outbreak of Hong Kong's new housing market is the result of multiple favorable factors catalyzing together, with the core driving force concentrated in three aspects. Macro policies and interest rate environment, the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts continues to rise, local financing costs in Hong Kong have synchronously decreased, the pressure on home purchase funds has eased, and investment and self occupied demand have been concentrated and released; The market confidence has been restored, and the continuous recovery trend of the real estate market for several months, coupled with the steady increase in second-hand market transactions, has further strengthened buyers' long-term confidence in Hong Kong properties, and the wait-and-see sentiment has rapidly subsided; Supported by funding and demand, global liquidity is gradually easing, coupled with the active entry of local demand and mainland buyers, forming a multi-channel demand resonance, directly driving the volume of new house transactions.

3、 Market characteristics: A wave of large customers sweeping goods has emerged, with a single transaction threshold exceeding 26 million yuan

In the first quarter, the Hong Kong new housing market showed a significant trend of "volume increase+concentrated transactions", with the influx of large customers becoming a highlight of the market. As of March 20th, a total of 265 cases of large buyers entering the market (the same buyer purchased multiple units in the same housing estate within one month) have been recorded in Hong Kong's new properties, setting a new high for the same period after 2008, involving 695 units and a total amount of HKD 7.13 billion, accounting for more than 10% of the overall first-hand registration amount.

The average threshold for each group of large customers to enter the market reached HKD 26.91 million, an increase of 1.3 times compared to the same period in 2025 with 117 cases, and a surge of nearly 17 times compared to the same period in 2023 with 15 cases before the withdrawal, highlighting the firm optimism of large funds towards the Hong Kong new housing market. Among them, there are buyers who purchased 9 sets of units in the name of the company at once, with a single transaction scale of HKD 129 million, reproducing the phenomenon of centralized shopping.

4、 Market outlook: Stable volume and rising price trend, short-term vigilance against high volatility

The current Hong Kong new housing market has entered a critical stage of "both quantity and price rising", and the future trend needs to pay attention to two core dynamics.

Positive support still exists: in the long run, Hong Kong's asset attributes as an international financial center remain unchanged, and the interest rate reduction cycle, local demand support, and global capital allocation demand will continue to provide upward momentum for the real estate market;

Risk and differentiation coexist: In the short term, the market heat is rapidly rising, or there may be periodic high volatility risks. At the same time, the transaction performance of different sectors and projects will further differentiate, and the heat of high-quality locations and products is expected to continue to lead.

Overall, the explosive growth of Hong Kong's new housing market in the first quarter of 2026 marks a new stage in the recovery of the real estate market. We need to continuously track the trend of interest rates, policy developments, and capital flows in the future, grasp the market rhythm, and be alert to short-term volatility risks.