In the first quarter of 2026, Hong Kong housing prices rose by 5%, showing a clear differentiation from the mainland real estate market

1、 Leading the rise in China: Hong Kong housing prices surged 5% in the first quarter, institutions raise full year expectations

So far this year, Hong Kong's housing prices have risen by 5.04%, far exceeding all cities in mainland China, becoming the city with the largest housing price increase in the first quarter of China, completely breaking away from the previous adjustment downturn. This increase is not accidental, but a direct reflection of the comprehensive recovery of the market, supported by solid transaction data. According to data from Zhongyuan Real Estate, the transaction volume of first-hand private residential properties in Hong Kong in the first quarter increased by 38% compared to the same period last year, and the total sales volume surged by 94%. Both core data broke records for the same period in previous years, demonstrating the strong driving force of market recovery.

The booming market situation has also made institutions confident in the trend of Hong Kong housing prices, and they have raised their expectations for the annual increase. Previously, institutions predicted that Hong Kong housing prices would rise by 5% for the whole year, but now they have been significantly raised to 15%, which shows the market's firm optimism for the recovery of the Hong Kong housing market. From the perspective of regional performance, housing prices in Hong Kong Island, Kowloon, and the New Territories have all risen, with the cumulative increase in Hong Kong Island reaching 6.87%, leading the city, further highlighting the scarcity of core areas.

2、 Both quantity and price rise: Large scale investors enter the market to achieve new highs, unleashing the market's' animal spirit '

The strong recovery of Hong Kong's real estate market cannot be separated from the strong support of financially strong "big spenders". It is worth noting that in the first quarter, the number of major new construction projects entering the market in Hong Kong reached a new high since 2008, indicating that the activity of major investors has reached a nearly 18 year high, and the "animal spirit" in the market has been fully released. According to statistics, a total of 265 cases of large customers entering the market were recorded in the first quarter of Hong Kong, involving 695 units and a total amount of HKD 7.13 billion, accounting for over 10% of the overall first-hand registration volume. The average threshold for each group of large customers entering the market was as high as HKD 26.91 million.

The concentrated entry of large customers not only drives the explosion of trading volume, but also boosts market confidence, forming a positive cycle of "buying more as the price rises". At the same time, the second-hand market has also rebounded, with second-hand residential transactions reaching a 56 month high in March. The linkage between primary and secondary properties has formed a virtuous cycle, further driving up housing prices steadily. In addition, rental prices in Hong Kong have risen simultaneously, with monthly payments in some areas already lower than rent, prompting more tenants to turn to purchasing homes and further unleashing their basic needs.

3、 Polarization: Hong Kong leads the recovery, while the mainland is still in the bottom building stage

In sharp contrast to the booming recovery of the Hong Kong real estate market, the mainland real estate market is still generally in the bottoming out stage of exchanging price for volume. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in February 2026, only 10 out of 70 large and medium-sized cities in mainland China saw a month on month increase in new house prices. New house prices in second - and third tier cities continued to decline, and most cities had to take measures such as price reductions, promotions, and optimized housing subsidies to reduce inventory, resulting in weak market demand release.

This polarization is not an isolated case, but a concentrated reflection of the differences in market development stages, policy environments, and demand structures between the two regions. The Hong Kong housing market has completely emerged from a period of deep adjustment, and market sentiment has turned towards positivity, forming a vibrant resonance from multiple angles and all directions; However, the mainland real estate market still faces problems such as high inventory, unstable income expectations for residents, and strong wait-and-see sentiment among homebuyers, with a slow recovery process, forming a strong contrast with the leading trend of the Hong Kong real estate market.