Mainland buyers surge into Hong Kong, with first hand transactions expected to reach a seven-year high in the first half of the year

1、 The transaction volume surged in the first quarter, and mainland buyers supported half of the market

In the first quarter of 2026, the Hong Kong property market has shown a strong recovery trend. There were 6291 transactions of first-hand private homes, a year-on-year increase of 43.8%, reaching a new high for the same period since 2013. The overall property registration volume was 23300, a year-on-year increase of 46.4%, reaching a high for the same period in 2013. Among them, mainland buyers have made outstanding contributions, with nearly 3900 property purchases and a total amount exceeding HKD 40 billion in the first quarter, an increase of over 50% and over 90% year-on-year, respectively. The number of transactions in a single month has exceeded 1000 for 13 consecutive months.

From a structural perspective, the demand in mainland China presents a hierarchical feature: in the high-end market, mainland buyers of luxury homes worth over HKD 50 million account for nearly 70%; In the mid-range market, emerging sectors such as Kowloon, Hong Kong Island core areas, and Kai Tak are favored by mainland professionals, with some regions accounting for over 58% of new mainland visitors. After the implementation of the "de spicy" policy, the tax rate has been reduced to the same level as local residents, and coupled with the mortgage interest rate of about 3.01% during the interest rate reduction cycle, the "supply leveling over rent" effect has become apparent, further activating the enthusiasm for entering the market.

2、 Policy+talent dual wheel drive long-term demand with a solid foundation

This wave of enthusiasm is not a short-term hype, but a long-term release of policies and demographic dividends. In February 2024, Hong Kong will fully implement a "cooling off" policy, reducing the tax burden on non permanent residents from 30% to about 4.25%, and reducing the tax on a property worth tens of millions of Hong Kong dollars by over 2.5 million Hong Kong dollars. At the same time, the Hong Kong Talent Program has approved 410000 applications in three years, with 300000 mainland talents, forming a stable and essential demand of "renting before buying".

Combined with the asset hedging properties of the Hong Kong dollar pegged to the US dollar, the cost advantage of purchasing properties brought about by the appreciation of the Chinese yuan, and the influx of international capital, the attractiveness of the Hong Kong real estate market continues to increase. As of March, the first-hand inventory in Hong Kong was 17600 sets, a decrease of 24% from the high at the beginning of 2025, and the supply and demand pattern continued to improve. The new listing is priced at a 0.5% premium compared to the second-hand listing, marking the first time in three and a half years and supporting market confidence.

3、 Expectations for the first half of the year are positive, and the market's steady recovery continues

Based on the strong performance in the first quarter, institutions are generally optimistic about the market in the first half of the year. It is expected that there will be 11300 first-hand transactions in the first half of the year, and the number of transactions may exceed 20000 for the whole year. The annual increase in property prices is expected to exceed 10%. Mainland buyers will continue to be the core engine, with demand shifting from short-term speculation to long-term allocation and self occupation improvement. High net worth individuals will layout luxury homes, while middle-class professionals will purchase small and medium-sized units in core areas, resulting in a more rational structure.