Hong Kong property transactions in November are projected to reach 8,300 cases, marking the highest level in over a year and a half!

Yang Mingyi, Senior Associate Director of Research at Centaline Property, noted that based on current market performance projections, the total number of registered property sale contracts for November is expected to reach approximately 8,300, involving a transaction value of HK$62 billion. This represents increases of 16.6% and 6.1% respectively compared to October. Notably, in terms of transaction volume, this figure would mark a 20-month high since April last year – surpassing the peak recorded over a year and a half ago. By transaction value, it would also represent the highest level in nearly six months since June this year, signifying the most active period in the property market since the initial phase of the government's comprehensive withdrawal of cooling measures.

The latest data from the Land Registry corroborates this market vigour. As of 19 November, provisional figures for the month show 6,396 building sale contracts registered (encompassing residential, car park, and commercial/industrial properties), with a total value of HK$47.407 billion. Year-to-date, approximately 78,100 transactions worth HK$596.638 billion have been recorded, representing increases of 14.9% and 11.7% respectively compared to the same period last year. Market forecasts suggest annual transaction volumes could reach 80,000 units with a total value of HK$611 billion, representing increases of nearly 20% and 15% respectively. This would mark the highest levels in four years since 2021, providing clear support for the property market's recovery trend.

Analysing the primary and secondary markets separately reveals a divergent pattern this month characterised by ‘one decline and two increases’. In the primary private residential sector, provisional figures as of 19 November show 1,365 transactions worth RMB15.13 billion. Full-month projections indicate approximately 1,700 transactions valued at RMB20 billion, representing month-on-month declines of 6.2% and 12.7% respectively. In stark contrast, the secondary private residential market demonstrated robust performance. As of the 19th, 2,820 transactions worth HK$22.1 billion were recorded, with monthly projections reaching approximately 3,800 transactions and HK$30 billion in value – representing month-on-month increases of 7% and 7.3% respectively. Transaction volumes are set to reach their highest level in eight months since April this year, while transaction values have climbed to a 20-month high, making the secondary market the core driver of this month's property market recovery.

The adjustment of Hong Kong banks' interest rates has significantly contributed to this market recovery. Mr Chan Hoi-chiu, Head of Research at Ricacorp Properties, noted that the reduction of the prime lending rate to 5% has effectively lowered mortgage costs for homebuyers, substantially stimulating demand for property upgrades and purchases. Data indicates that last month, the 18 major newly-developed residential estates across Hong Kong recorded 215 second-hand transaction registrations, marking an over 11% month-on-month increase and the second-highest monthly transaction volume this year.

However, Mr Chan also noted that the simultaneous relaunch of multiple new primary market developments in mid-November has to some extent diluted market focus and purchasing power, creating short-term pressure on the secondary market. Coupled with November being a traditionally quiet month for property transactions, this may exert a slight dampening effect on deal volumes. Nevertheless, sustained property price growth is accelerating homebuyers' market entry pace. Second-hand transaction registrations for the 18 major new developments are projected to remain at a high level of 210 cases this month, with overall market activity expected to persist.