Online rumors suggest that a super cold wave will hit Hong Kong in mid January! Will Hong Kong really experience snowfall?

According to official records from the Hong Kong Observatory, Hong Kong is located in the subtropical zone with a relatively warm climate, and snowfall is an extremely rare winter weather phenomenon. Since the establishment of systematic meteorological records in 1948, there have only been four reports of slight snowfall in Hong Kong, occurring on February 2, 1967, December 13, 1967, January 29, 1971, and December 14, 1975. It is worth noting that all four snowfalls were concentrated in highland areas, with one occurring at Cape Collinson Correctional Institution and the other three occurring near the top of Mount Tai Mo. There have never been any snowfall records in the urban area. The lowest recorded temperature in Hong Kong was 0.0 ℃ on January 18, 1893, when significant icing occurred on the highlands, but no snowfall was observed in the urban area.

In response to the online rumors of a "super cold wave" and snowfall forecast, the Hong Kong Observatory has made it clear that the chance of snowfall in Hong Kong in mid January is not high. The scientific director of the observatory explained that according to the precise data from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts supercomputer model, the lowest temperature in Hong Kong on January 12th was about 10 ℃, and snowfall requires temperatures to reach below zero and meet specific water vapor conditions. Current forecast data does not support this possibility. In addition, the Observatory's nine day weather forecast shows that the lowest temperature in Hong Kong in mid January is about 15 ℃, and the highest temperature can reach 19 ℃, showing an overall upward trend, which deviates significantly from the description of a "super cold wave".

From the perspective of climate background, this online news also lacks strong support. The quarterly forecast previously released by the Hong Kong Observatory indicated that there is a high probability of normal to high temperatures and normal to low rainfall in Hong Kong from January to March 2026. Although there is currently a weak La Ni ñ a state in the equatorial Pacific, which may guide cold air from the north to move southward, this impact has been partially offset by the long-term warming effect of global warming. In recent years, during La Ni ñ a events, winter temperatures in Hong Kong have mostly been close to normal or above normal levels. This means that the probability of extreme cold weather in Hong Kong is already low, let alone meeting the harsh conditions required for snowfall.

Although the possibility of snowfall is minimal, Hong Kong has indeed felt the chill recently. On January 7th, the Observatory issued cold weather warnings and frost warnings, and some areas in the New Territories experienced severe cold weather with obvious wind and cold effects. The Observatory reminds citizens that although rumors of super cold waves and snowfall are untrue, winter temperatures fluctuate greatly from day to day, and cold weather may still occur occasionally. When going out, it is necessary to prepare suitable warm clothing and closely monitor the official weather information.