Metal Wars: Silver up 20% in January, gold up 5%, copper hits new highs!

Silver has accumulated a 20% increase since January, gold has risen by 5%, and copper prices have also broken through previous bottlenecks to reach new highs. The horn of the "metal war" has been sounded, and the global capital market's attention is fully focused on this wave of rising tide in metals.

Specific market data shows that gold futures hit a high of $4650 per ounce on the 14th, and have achieved a 5% increase in just two weeks since the beginning of the year, setting a strong tone for the annual trend. And silver's performance was even more stunning, with a monthly increase of 20% far exceeding gold, becoming the "leading uptrend" in the metal market at the beginning of the year. At the same time, the representative variety of industrial metals, copper, has strengthened synchronously, breaking through the previous oscillation range and reaching a new high, forming a rare pattern of precious metals and industrial metals advancing simultaneously, driving the metal index to rise synchronously. According to data from Tonghuashun Financial, the metal index (CN6052) closed at 3637.34 points on January 14th, up 1.18% on the same day, with a turnover of 38.012 billion yuan, indicating a strong willingness for funds to enter the market; The precious metal index (801053) performed exceptionally well, with a daily increase of 1.81% and closing at 27403.62 points, reaching a high of 27770.48 points during the trading session, demonstrating the market's enthusiasm for precious metals.

The outbreak of this metal market is not accidental, but the inevitable result of multiple macro factors resonating with market sentiment. The first and foremost issue is the continuous escalation of geopolitical situation, which provides strong support for the safe haven demand of precious metals. Recently, the United States has successively intervened in Venezuela's affairs, while the geopolitical tension with Iran continues to escalate. The rising risk of regional conflicts has caused a sudden increase in risk aversion in global capital markets. As traditional safe haven assets, gold and silver naturally become "safe havens" for funds, and the influx of a large amount of safe haven funds directly drives up prices.

The more critical driving factor is the continued deepening of market doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which has triggered the restructuring of the global asset pricing system. On January 12th, news of a criminal investigation by US federal prosecutors into Federal Reserve Chairman Powell caused a severe market shock. Powell subsequently issued a rare video statement, stating that the investigation was an "excuse" to undermine the independence of the Federal Reserve's interest rate setting, emphasizing that monetary policy should be based on evidence and economic conditions, rather than political pressure or coercion. This incident has raised deep concerns in the market that the decision-making autonomy of the Federal Reserve will be weakened. If monetary policy becomes a political tool, it will directly shake the credit foundation of the US dollar and the anchor of global asset pricing.

The market has already voted on this with "real gold and silver". With the fermentation of Powell's criminal investigation news, the US market has once again experienced a "triple kill" of stocks, foreign exchange, and bonds, while gold and silver have risen sharply against the trend. Jiang Nanyu, an analyst at Yuanda Information Securities Research Institute, pointed out that this investigation is essentially using judicial pressure to pressure Powell to cut interest rates in the short term, forcing him to accelerate rate cuts during the FOMC meeting in February and March, while also damaging his reputation to reduce his likelihood of staying in office. This erosion of the independence of the Federal Reserve has raised concerns in the market about future inflation rebounds and the weakening of the US dollar's position, thereby driving investors to increase their allocation of hard assets such as gold. As David Wilson, head of commodity strategy at BNP Paribas, has stated, doubts about the independence of the Federal Reserve and uncertainty about the direction of US interest rates will be the core driving factors affecting the gold market for most of 2026.