Hong Kong's new inventory has fallen below the 20000 level! Falling for 3 consecutive quarters, hitting a new low in nearly 11 quarters

Data shows that the transaction volume of residential buildings in Hong Kong increased by 18.3% year-on-year for the whole year last year. At the same time, the final volume of first-hand new properties officially fell below the level of 20000, hitting a new low in nearly 11 quarters. Moreover, the final volume of properties has continued to decline for three consecutive quarters on a month on month basis, with a cumulative decrease of 3960 units. The market has achieved significant results in market liberalization. Zhongyuan Real Estate stated that the current atmosphere in the real estate market continues to improve, and property prices have shown a trend of bottoming out and rebounding. The industry's recovery momentum is gradually increasing.

As the core evidence of the recovery of the real estate market, the steady increase in transaction volume injects strong confidence into the market. According to statistics from the Land Registry of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government and Central Plains Real Estate, there were approximately 62800 residential building transactions registered in Hong Kong last year, with a total amount of approximately 519.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 18.3% and 14.4% respectively. Both the number of transactions and the amount reached a four-year high since 2021, confirming the sustained release of market demand. Among them, there were 20525 first-hand private residential transactions with a total value of 225.55 billion yuan, an increase of 21.7% and 8.2% respectively year-on-year, returning to the level of 20000 transactions and setting a new high since 2019; The second-hand market also performed strongly, with 39843 transactions and a total amount of 291.72 billion yuan, setting a new high in nearly four years.

1、 The tail end of goods has fallen for three consecutive quarters, breaking through 20000 yuan, highlighting the effectiveness of sales reduction

The continuous decline in the remaining volume of first-hand new inventory has become the most tangible manifestation of the recovery of the real estate market. As of the end of the fourth quarter of last year, the final volume of first-hand new inventory in Hong Kong officially fell below the level of 20000 units, to more than 18000 units. This not only hit a new low in nearly 11 quarters (about 2.5 years), but also achieved three consecutive quarters of month on month decline, with a cumulative decrease of 3960 units, significantly accelerating the pace of turnover. From a regional perspective, the Kowloon district experienced the most significant decrease in inventory, with a significant decrease of 18.1% in unsold units in December last year compared to the same period in 2024; The New Territories region decreased by 13% during the same period, while the Hong Kong Island region saw a decrease of 8.3% in cargo volume. The overall cargo volume in all three regions fell, reflecting a comprehensive increase in market activity.

The significant decrease in inventory is partly due to the continuous increase in transaction volume and the release of market demand, which effectively digests the existing housing stock; On the other hand, it is also closely related to the developer's promotion strategy. Last year, more than 40 new properties were launched in the form of price lists or tenders. Some developers adopted a low price strategy to accelerate the clearance of new properties, with new properties accounting for 47.9% of the first hand transactions, and the remaining 52.1% being inventory digesting properties. The clearance structure continues to be optimized. In terms of layout, two bedroom units are the most popular in the market, accounting for 38.3% of the inventory turnover, while one bedroom and three bedroom or more units account for 31.3% and 23.1% respectively, which meets the mainstream market demand.

2、 The atmosphere of the real estate market is improving, and property prices have bottomed out and rebounded

In response to the current performance of the real estate market, Zhongyuan Real Estate has made a clear optimistic judgment, believing that the atmosphere of the Hong Kong real estate market has continued to improve, property prices have bottomed out and rebounded, and the industry is gradually entering the recovery channel. Yang Mingyi, Senior Joint Director of the Research Department of Zhongyuan Real Estate, pointed out that in 2025, there were 80702 registered building purchase and sale contracts, reaching a four-year high. The number of first-hand and second-hand private buildings reached a six-year and four-year high respectively, fully reflecting the recovery of market confidence. At the same time, the continuous influx of mainland homebuyers has also provided strong support for the demand in the real estate market.

Data shows that over 13500 Mandarin Pinyin buyers entered the market last year, an increase of more than 10% compared to 2024, and exceeded 10000 for two consecutive years, with a total transaction amount of 136.4 billion yuan, setting a new high since records began in 1995. Among them, Mandarin Pinyin buyers invested a total amount of about HKD 78.9 billion in the new housing market, accounting for more than half, and the number of transactions also exceeded 6000 for the first time. In addition, the luxury housing market has also performed well. In the first 20 days of January this year, the transaction volume of over 100 million yuan of first-hand super luxury homes in Hong Kong reached 16, a year-on-year increase of 4.3 times compared to January last year, setting the best record for the same period since the implementation of the first-hand sales regulations in 2013.