2026 Hong Kong Tower: Meilian Huang Jianye supports luxury homes, expected to see a 10% increase in property prices for the whole year

At the 2026 anniversary dinner of Meilian Group, Chairman Huang Jianye delivered a speech, giving a clear and optimistic outlook for the Hong Kong real estate market this year: as long as various favorable factors continue to exert force, the price and volume of the Hong Kong real estate market are expected to continue to break through, steadily rise, and even officially enter a new upward cycle. Among them, he is particularly optimistic about the performance of the luxury housing market, predicting that Hong Kong property prices will rise by 10% for the whole year of 2026, reaching the level of August 2023, setting the largest annual increase since the last nine years in 2017. At the same time, the transaction end will also rebound synchronously, reproducing the prosperous market scene of "price and quantity rising together".

1、 Optimistic outlook: With multiple favorable factors, the real estate market is expected to enter a new upward cycle

In his speech, Huang Jianye emphasized that the positive trend of Hong Kong's property market in 2026 cannot be achieved without the coordinated support of four core favorable factors. These factors, when combined, will continue to inject momentum into the property market, promote the market to break away from the previous adjustment trend, and achieve steady recovery and even breakthroughs.

The primary benefit is the return of the interest rate reduction cycle. According to market expectations, there is still room for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026, and the Hong Kong Interbank Offered Rate is expected to be lowered accordingly, reducing bank funding costs and citizens' mortgage burdens, further unleashing local housing demand. Previously, a report by CICC pointed out that a cumulative interest rate cut of 100bps in the US dollar may have a more substantial improvement effect on the affordability of local housing in Hong Kong, and the probability of reaching this level of interest rate cuts in 2026 is not low. Secondly, the continuous vigorous development of Hong Kong's financial industry, coupled with the steady recovery of tourism and export trade, has driven the overall economic recovery, generated more high-end housing demand and wealth effects, and laid a solid economic foundation for the recovery of the real estate market. Finally, the long-term housing supply has peaked and fallen, gradually easing the pressure of market supply-demand imbalance and providing support for the stable upward trend of property prices. This is also one of the key reasons why Huang Jianye holds an optimistic attitude towards the long-term trend of the real estate market.

It is worth noting that this optimistic outlook is not an isolated judgment. According to data from the Rating and Valuation Department of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, the price index of private residential properties in Hong Kong will increase by 3.25% year-on-year in 2025, marking the first rebound after three consecutive years of decline. The rental index will also rise for three consecutive years, indicating that the strength of the real estate market recovery has gradually emerged. On this basis, Huang Jianye believes that if favorable factors continue in 2026, the real estate market is expected to achieve greater breakthroughs and officially enter a new upward cycle.

2、 Price and quantity both rise, with hope: property prices hit the largest increase in 9 years, and transactions reach a new high

Regarding the specific performance of the Hong Kong real estate market in 2026, Huang Jianye has given clear expectations, with the core keyword being "price and volume rise together". Both the increase in property prices and transaction volume are expected to reach new highs in recent years, demonstrating a strong recovery momentum.

In terms of property prices, Huang Jianye predicts that Hong Kong's property prices will rise by 10% for the whole year of 2026, ultimately reaching the level of August 2023. This increase is of great significance and will set the largest annual increase in the nine years since 2017, marking the complete recovery of the Hong Kong property market from the previous adjustment haze and achieving substantial recovery. Among them, he is most optimistic about the performance of the luxury housing market - based on the recovery trend of the luxury housing market in 2025, luxury homes with deep price adjustments before have more strong rebound momentum. From July to October 2025, 45 first-hand super luxury homes worth over HKD 100 million were sold, with a total amount of HKD 10.2 billion, a significant increase of 67.5% compared to the first half of the year, laying the foundation for further growth in the luxury housing market in 2026.

In terms of transactions, expectations are equally optimistic. Huang Jianye stated that the number of first-hand residential transactions in Hong Kong is expected to reach 21000 in 2026, an increase of 5% year-on-year, which will once again set a record high after the implementation of the first-hand regulations; The number of second-hand residential transactions is expected to reach 50000, an increase of 5% year-on-year, setting a new high in five years. If this expectation is fulfilled, the Hong Kong property market will usher in another two consecutive years of "price and quantity rising" since 2017, further consolidating the recovery trend of the property market and boosting market confidence. This transaction expectation is also in line with the actual market trend. In 2025, the transaction volume of primary and secondary residential properties in Hong Kong has exceeded 5000 for nine consecutive months, and demand continues to be released, providing support for further increase in transaction volume in 2026.