Nonferrous metal prices climb to high levels: Precious metals lead the rise

In 2025, the precious metal market will become the "leader" of the non-ferrous metal bull market, with gold and silver prices experiencing explosive increases that far exceed market expectations, becoming one of the most anticipated investment hotspots of the year. Data shows that London spot gold has performed strongly throughout the year, with prices climbing from $2600/ounce at the beginning of the year to breaking through the $4500/ounce mark at the end of the year, with an annual increase of over 73%. It has continuously broken through the two key thresholds of $3000 and $4000, setting a new high for prices in this stage and demonstrating strong upward momentum.

Compared to the steady rise of gold, silver prices have shown an explosive upward trend, with even more astonishing gains. At the beginning of 2025, the spot silver price in London was only $29 per ounce, and by the end of the year it had soared to $80 per ounce, with an annual increase of 175%, far exceeding that of gold and becoming a "dark horse" variety in the precious metal market. It is reported that the significant rise in the prices of gold and silver is the result of the return of monetary attributes, the outbreak of safe haven demand, the change in central bank behavior, and the resonance of industrial demand growth - global liquidity easing expectations have driven the weakening of the US dollar, geopolitical tensions have stimulated safe haven demand, and combined with the increased industrial demand for silver in industries such as photovoltaics, they have jointly driven up the prices of precious metals, attracting a large number of macro hedge funds and investors to flock in, further amplifying the price increase.

While precious metals have significantly led the rise, the domestic base metal market has also performed well, with core varieties such as Shanghai copper and Shanghai aluminum steadily rising in price. Among them, the main contract for Shanghai copper has seen a particularly prominent increase, becoming the core growth point of the base metal sector. Data shows that the main contract price of Shanghai copper in 2025 has shown strong performance, continuing to rise from 73000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year and breaking through the 100000 yuan/ton mark at the end of the year, with an annual increase of over 40%, setting a stage high since the listing of Shanghai copper and staging a "steep rise, high volatility" trend.

The main contract prices of Shanghai Aluminum have shown a steady and moderate upward trend, with a relatively stable overall trend throughout the year. At the beginning of 2025, the main contract price of Shanghai Aluminum was about 20000 yuan/ton, which rose to 23000 yuan/ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 15%. Although the increase was not as high as that of Shanghai copper and precious metals, it still achieved steady growth, demonstrating strong market resilience. It is reported that the significant increase in copper prices in Shanghai is driven by four factors: macro, policy, supply and demand, and financial sentiment - the global green energy transformation, the AI industry wave that has generated huge demand for copper, the disturbance of the copper mine supply chain that exacerbates the expectation of supply tension, and the financial speculation demand brought about by global liquidity easing, jointly driving up copper prices; The rise in Shanghai aluminum prices is mainly due to the support of rising energy costs, domestic production capacity constraints, and increasing demand in the new energy sector. Although traditional downstream demand such as real estate is sluggish, the growth in high-end demand in new energy vehicles, photovoltaics, and other fields still provides solid support for aluminum prices.

The collective rise of non-ferrous metal prices to a high level in 2025 is not accidental, but the result of multiple factors working together. The core can be attributed to three aspects: macro environment, supply and demand pattern, and industrial trends. From a macro perspective, the expectation of loose liquidity in major economies around the world is clear. The Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy towards expectations has driven the weakening of the US dollar, reduced the holding cost of non-ferrous metals, stimulated global demand for allocation and speculation, and become the core macro driving force behind price increases; Meanwhile, the ongoing geopolitical tensions and the restructuring of the global industrial chain have made resource security a top priority for countries, further amplifying the price elasticity of non-ferrous metals.

From the perspective of supply and demand patterns, the normalization of supply side constraints has become a key driving force - the global decline in mining grade, increased ESG pressure, and reduced capital expenditures have led to a decrease in the supply elasticity of upstream resources such as copper and aluminum mines, coupled with supply chain disruptions caused by reduced production and trade policy adjustments in some mines, further exacerbating the expectation of supply shortages; On the demand side, there is a "structural differentiation" characteristic. Although traditional downstream demand is weak, new energy AI、 The rise of emerging industries such as photovoltaics and wind power has given rise to a huge incremental demand for non-ferrous metals, forming a demand pattern of "traditional demand bottoming out and emerging demand leading", providing solid support for price increases. In addition, hoarding behavior under trade disputes has further amplified the demand effect, driving prices to continue rising.