Domestic refined oil prices may experience the largest increase of the year

The core cause of this oil price hike is the severe fluctuations in the international crude oil market. As the conflict in the Middle East continues to escalate, market concerns about disruptions in crude oil supply continue to intensify, directly driving up international oil prices significantly. On March 5th, the price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose sharply, with an increase of 8.51%, closing at $81.01 per barrel, marking the largest daily increase in nearly 6 years; During the same period, London Brent crude oil futures prices also rose by 4.93%, closing at $85.41 per barrel. The surge in international oil prices laid the foundation for the upward adjustment of domestic refined oil prices.

As the core region of global energy supply, the Middle East controls nearly 30% of the world's oil supply, and the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz, the "world energy throat," directly affects the safety of global crude oil transportation. At present, the security alert in the region has been raised to the highest level, with a large number of oil tankers suspended for safety reasons and shipping almost stagnant, further exacerbating the market's panic about tightening crude oil supply and driving oil prices to continue to rise.

According to the mechanism of domestic refined oil price formation, when the moving average price of crude oil in the international market changes by more than 4% for 22 consecutive working days, the domestic refined oil price can be adjusted accordingly. Based on the latest market calculations, it is expected that domestic gasoline and diesel prices will significantly increase next week, with an adjustment range of 0.37 yuan/liter to 0.44 yuan/liter. This increase will set a record for the largest single adjustment in domestic refined oil prices since the beginning of this year.

The impact of the increase in oil prices has become clear, directly affecting the daily travel costs of car owners. Based on the 50 liter fuel tank capacity of a regular family car, after the price adjustment is implemented, car owners will incur an additional cost of 18.5 to 22 yuan to fill up one tank of fuel. Converted, it is equivalent to spending more than 20 yuan more for each full tank of fuel. In the long run, this will bring certain cost pressure to high-frequency travel car owners.

It is reported that the domestic refined oil price adjustment window is expected to officially open at 24:00 on March 9th. Currently, the pricing cycle is coming to an end, and the price increase continues to rise. There is no doubt that the price adjustment will be implemented. Based on the current national retail average price of refined oil, after the price adjustment, 92 octane gasoline in most parts of the country may approach or exceed 7.5 yuan/liter, and 95 octane gasoline in some areas will officially enter the "8 yuan era".