Domestic oil prices may see the largest increase within the year

It is reported that the core driving force behind this round of oil price hikes comes from the sustained surge in international crude oil prices. On March 8th local time, international oil prices experienced a significant surge, with WTI crude oil futures prices briefly breaking through $110 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures also touching the $110/barrel mark, both reaching their highest levels since 2022. This fluctuation is mainly due to the intensification of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the obstruction of oil transportation channels, and factors such as production cuts by major oil producing countries, which directly push up the international crude oil market price and then transmit it to the domestic refined oil pricing system.

According to the domestic refined oil pricing mechanism, the adjustment of domestic oil prices is based on a 10 working day cycle, with reference to the weighted average price changes of Brent, Dubai, and Minas crude oil prices to determine the adjustment range. As of the 9th working day of March 6th, relevant institutions have calculated that the average price of reference crude oil varieties is 73.06 US dollars per barrel, with a change rate of 9.61%. The corresponding domestic retail price of gasoline and diesel should be raised by 485 yuan/ton, and the final price adjustment range is expected to be around 600 yuan/ton.

Specifically, regarding the fuel cost that car owners are most concerned about, according to current calculation data, gasoline prices will increase by about 0.47-0.51 yuan per liter. For common 50L fuel tank private cars on the market, filling up one tank will incur an additional cost of about 23 yuan; For a large truck with a fuel tank capacity of 140L, the cost of filling up one tank with fuel will increase by about 71.4 yuan, which will undoubtedly further increase operating costs for the logistics industry that relies on truck transportation.

Looking back at the process of oil price adjustment since 2026, the domestic refined oil market has gone through four rounds of price adjustment windows, showing an overall pattern of "three increases and one suspension". If this price adjustment is implemented as scheduled, it will officially form a "four consecutive price increases" trend, which is also the fourth price increase since the beginning of this year. The price of 92 octane gasoline in many parts of China is expected to exceed 8.5 yuan/liter, and 95 octane gasoline may enter the "9 yuan era".

The continuous rise in oil prices not only directly affects the daily travel expenses of fuel car owners, but also indirectly transmits to multiple downstream industries. For industries such as logistics transportation, ride hailing, and taxis, the increase in fuel costs may further compress profit margins, and some industries may face pressure to adjust prices; For ordinary consumers, the increase in travel costs may also prompt more people to adjust their modes of transportation, reduce non essential driving trips, or consider replacing hybrid or pure electric vehicles to reduce long-term usage costs.