Short term storage pressure! The upward trend in prices is expected to continue

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In 2025, the storage industry will deliver its strongest performance report in history, with top companies achieving leapfrog growth in both revenue and profit, completely emerging from the previous trough cycle, and the industry's high prosperity receiving strong fundamental support.

The performance of domestic leading companies is particularly impressive: Baiwei Storage achieved a revenue of 11.302 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 68.81%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 853 million yuan, a year-on-year surge of 429.07%. The overall business volume and price of PC storage, embedded storage, and industrial vehicle storage have all increased; Demingli's annual revenue was 10.789 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 126.07%, with a net profit of 688 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 96.35%. The performance forecast for the first quarter of 2026 exceeded expectations again, with expected revenue growth of 483% to 523% year-on-year; Enterprises such as Zhaoyi Innovation and Jiangbolong have also achieved dual growth in revenue and profit. Jiangbolong's net profit has increased by over 150% year-on-year, and its storage module and chip businesses have fully recovered.

At the global market level, Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron, the three major storage giants, have also achieved historic highs in performance. In the fourth quarter of 2025, SK Hynix's revenue increased by 34% month on month, and its operating profit increased significantly by 68% month on month, with an operating profit margin of up to 58%; Samsung's storage business sales revenue surged by 62% year-on-year, and operating profit surged by 465.52% year-on-year, becoming the core growth engine of the group's performance. From consumer electronics to data centers, from general DRAM to high-end NAND flash memory, the entire industry is showing a trend of "simultaneous increase in quantity and price, and tight supply and demand", with significant characteristics of the business cycle.

2、 Short term disturbance appears: Market concerns trigger sector correction

Despite the sustained improvement in industry fundamentals, the storage sector has experienced a phase of correction since the first quarter of 2026, with market sentiment shifting from optimism to caution, stemming from triple concerns about short-term supply and demand patterns.

Firstly, there is a risk of terminal demand being downgraded. PC、 The recovery of consumer electronics markets such as smartphones has fallen short of expectations, and some brands have lowered their shipping plans, causing concerns in the market about a slowdown in demand for general storage; Secondly, there is a differentiation in inventory structure, with some consumer grade storage product channels experiencing a slight increase in inventory. Coupled with the adjustment of the original factory's production control rhythm, the market's uncertainty about short-term supply and demand balance has increased; Thirdly, the storage sector experienced significant gains in the early stages, and there was a demand for profit taking by funds. Coupled with macroeconomic market fluctuations, this further amplified the extent of the sector's correction.

Under short-term disturbances, the market is engaged in a game of "continuation of the business cycle" and "concerns about slowing demand". The spot market for storage prices has experienced slight fluctuations, and some investors have questioned the sustainability of the industry's upward trend. But from the core logic of the industry, short-term fluctuations have not changed the underlying pattern of tight supply-demand balance, let alone shaken the long-term growth logic driven by AI.

3、 Q2 price increase clear: institutions predict further increase beyond expectations

In the face of short-term disturbances, multiple authoritative institutions have unanimously confirmed in their latest reports that storage prices will continue to rise strongly in the second quarter of 2026, with DRAM and NAND flash memory rising more than expected, and the industry's business cycle will further deepen.

TrendForce predicts that in the second quarter of 2026, the general DRAM contract price is expected to increase by 58% to 63% month on month, and the overall NAND flash contract price is expected to increase by 70% to 75% month on month. Nomura Securities has significantly raised its expectations for Q2 DRAM growth, increasing its Q2 DRAM growth forecast from 6% to 51% and NAND growth forecast from 20% to 50%. From a product perspective, Server DRAM has become the preferred production capacity allocation direction for original factories due to strong demand for AI, leading the price increase; Although PC DRAM is facing terminal demand pressure, the original factory is synchronously reducing supply, and the tight supply and demand support the upward trend in prices; Mobile DRAM and Graphics DRAM are also affected by insufficient production capacity, and prices continue to rise.

The core support for the price increase lies in the structural tightening of supply: original manufacturers such as Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron, etc. have shifted over 70% of their new production capacity to high profit HBM (high bandwidth memory), server DRAM, and enterprise SSDs, significantly squeezing consumer storage capacity. At the same time, the construction period of new production capacity is as long as 18 to 24 months, making it difficult to release it on a large scale before 2027, and the global storage supply and demand gap continues to widen. Top cloud providers such as Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia have signed long-term agreements in advance to lock in HBM and high-end storage capacity, further exacerbating supply constraints and providing solid support for Q2 price increases.

4、 AI restructuring pattern: a qualitative change in the medium to long term industry discourse power

In addition to short-term price increases, AI technology is becoming the biggest variable in the storage industry, reconstructing the discourse power of traditional storage giants from demand structure, capacity allocation to competitive landscape, and ushering in a historic transformation of "cyclical growth" in the industry.

On the demand side, AI servers have become the core engine for storage requirements. The DRAM demand for a single AI server is 8 to 10 times that of traditional servers, and the NAND demand is about 3 times. The global AI server shipment volume is expected to increase by 180% year-on-year in 2026, consuming over 50% of the world's storage capacity. The explosive growth in demand for HBM, DDR5, and high-capacity SSDs for AI big model training and inference is driving the upgrade of storage from "general electronic components" to "AI strategic level infrastructure".