Oil price: sixth highest of the year, with an additional cost of 0.14-0.17 yuan per liter

1、 Sixth increase of the year: International oil prices push up domestic costs

The core driving force behind this oil price hike comes from the continued strength of the international crude oil market. During the price adjustment cycle, international crude oil prices steadily rose, with a crude oil change rate of 2.21%, meeting the triggering conditions for domestic refined oil price adjustments. The rise in international oil prices is mainly supported by two factors: firstly, the tense geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the obstruction of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the disruption of about 20% of global oil transportation, leading to a continuous increase in supply risks; Secondly, OPEC+insists on the production reduction plan, and the global crude oil supply is tight, further supporting the high operation of oil prices.

The pricing of domestic refined oil products follows the "ten working days one adjustment" mechanism and is linked to international crude oil prices. Driven by the continuous rise in international oil prices, domestic oil prices have risen synchronously, forming a continuous upward trend since the beginning of this year. Although the magnitude of this round of price increases has narrowed compared to previous rounds, combined with previous increases, domestic oil prices have remained at a relatively high level overall.

2、 Livelihood impact: It costs about 8 yuan more to fill a full box of a household car

The increase in oil prices directly affects the travel costs of car owners. According to the calculation of a 50 liter fuel tank for a regular household car, after this round of adjustment, filling a full tank of 92 octane gasoline will incur an additional cost of 7-8.5 yuan. If calculated based on a monthly driving distance of 1500 kilometers and a fuel consumption of 8 liters per 100 kilometers, private car owners' monthly fuel costs will increase by about 17-20 yuan, with a cumulative additional expenditure of over 200 yuan throughout the year.

For industries such as logistics and passenger transportation, cost pressure is more significant. Freight vehicles generally have a fuel consumption of over 30 liters per 100 kilometers, and large trucks traveling over 10000 kilometers per month will increase their monthly fuel costs by over 400 yuan. This part of the cost will gradually spread to areas such as express delivery, fresh produce, and daily necessities, indirectly pushing up prices and increasing residents' living costs.

3、 Trend analysis: Under the six rising pattern, there is still uncertainty in the short term

As of this price adjustment, domestic refined oil products have achieved "six increases and one suspension" by 2026, with gasoline prices rising by over 2500 yuan per ton. The national average price of 92 octane gasoline is approaching 8.8 yuan/liter, and 95 octane gasoline has exceeded 9.3 yuan/liter. In the short term, if the situation in the Middle East does not significantly ease and OPEC+production cuts continue, international oil prices will still have support, and domestic oil prices may remain high.

However, there are also expectations of easing in the market. Some institutions predict that if geopolitical conflicts cool down and crude oil supply gradually recovers in the future, there is a possibility of a downward adjustment in oil prices during the next round of price adjustment window (April 21). For car owners, they can pay attention to price adjustment nodes, arrange refueling time reasonably, and reduce travel costs.

4、 Response suggestion: Use oil rationally and reduce costs through diversification

Faced with the continuous rise in oil prices, ordinary households can respond from three aspects: first, optimize their travel methods, prioritize short distance cycling and walking, choose public transportation for long distances, and reduce the frequency of car use; Secondly, cultivate good driving habits, avoid sudden acceleration and braking, and reduce vehicle fuel consumption; Thirdly, pay attention to the dynamics of oil prices, add fuel during off peak periods before adjusting prices, and lock in low prices.