Gold peaks above $4700, silver hits new high before rebounding

The daily market data was impressive and significantly differentiated. The London spot gold price rose by about 2% in a single day, closing at $4757.33 per ounce, with a intraday high of $4765.93, both rising and peaking at recent highs; The gold futures for February delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange performed even stronger, rising 3.7% in a single day to close at $4765.80 per ounce, forming a resonant upward trend with spot prices. The silver market, on the other hand, presented a "roller coaster" trend, with London spot silver prices breaking through the historical extreme of $95/ounce during trading, but failing to hold on to their gains. They significantly fell back in the late trading session, and ultimately narrowed their gains, forming a sharp contrast with the sustained strength of gold. The volatility of the gold silver ratio further intensified.

1、 Core drivers of gold breaking: dual support of safe haven sentiment and credit hedging

The breakthrough of gold above the key threshold of $4700 this time is not an accidental market trend, but an inevitable result of the resonance of multiple positive factors. The core driving force is the dual support of geopolitical risk escalation and weakened US dollar credit. In recent times, global geopolitical tensions have continued to escalate, with US President Trump's pressure on Iran and escalating tensions between the US and Europe, coupled with the aftermath of the situation in Venezuela, significantly increasing market uncertainty. Safe haven funds have flooded into the traditional "safe harbor" of gold, driving prices to continue rising.

The changes in monetary policy and credit expectations have further strengthened the allocation value of gold. The criminal prosecution of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell essentially reflects the domestic intervention in the independence of the Federal Reserve in the United States, exacerbating market concerns about fiat currency credit and significantly increasing the willingness of funds to allocate gold as a hedge against potential currency depreciation risks. It is worth noting that since the beginning of 2026, there has been a rare simultaneous increase in US bond yields, the US dollar index, and gold prices, breaking the traditional pricing logic and confirming that gold has moved away from being driven solely by monetary policy and turned towards a dual logic of geopolitical hedging and credit hedging, exhibiting obvious "logic desensitization" characteristics.

The "rush" layout of institutional funds has become an important driving force for the breakthrough of gold prices. Global mainstream institutions have raised their expectations for gold prices one after another, and some institutional investors have pre positioned their gold assets. Coupled with the influx of retail funds following the trend, a joint force of funds has been formed to push gold to break through the previous volatility range and stabilize above $4700. Analysts from Zijin Tianfeng Futures pointed out that this independent upward trend, which deviates from traditional suppression factors, further enhances the market's confidence in the continued rise of gold prices.

2、 Silver surges and softens: The game between supply and demand dividends and short-term risks

After synchronously breaking historical highs, silver quickly softened, driven by its dual characteristics of "industrial attributes+financial attributes". The short-term speculative sentiment receded and policy regulation pressure became the main reasons for the correction. From the perspective of upward logic, the surge of silver this time shares the safe haven and liquidity dividends with gold, and is supported by its own structural imbalance between supply and demand. The global silver market has faced a supply deficit for five consecutive years, with a shortfall of about 110 million ounces by 2025. Major producing countries such as Mexico and Peru are facing constraints from declining resource grades, and the supply of recycled silver is difficult to make up for the gap. Meanwhile, industrial demand in industries such as photovoltaics and new energy vehicles continues to surge, driving the strategic value reassessment of silver.

But the rapid rise in silver prices has also accumulated a large amount of short-term risks, becoming the trigger for the rebound from high to soft. On the one hand, the gold to silver ratio has recently fallen below the 50 mark, and silver is close to its most expensive level relative to gold in 13 years. Overheated speculative sentiment has led to profit taking frenzy, triggering a technical correction; On the other hand, the policy level has started to cool down the market, with the adjustment of precious metal margin models by the Zhishang Exchange and the implementation of margin and position restrictions on silver futures by the Shanghai Futures Exchange, which has suppressed excessive speculative behavior and further intensified the downward pressure on silver.

In addition, the industrial nature of silver makes it more sensitive to market sentiment. When gold continues to strengthen based on safe haven logic, silver is more affected by fluctuations in industrial demand expectations and short-term fund withdrawals, leading to a divergence in their trends. However, the industry generally believes that the medium to long-term upward logic of silver has not been disrupted, and the supply-demand imbalance and strategic reserve value will still support its price center to move upward.