The Ministry of Foreign Affairs urgently calls for avoiding Japan, and nearly 50 China Japan air routes have been cancelled!

1、 Double risk overlay, Ministry of Foreign Affairs issues serious warning

The call from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to "avoid travel" this time is not a regular travel warning, but a systematic warning based on the recent security situation in Japan. It is also the third time since November 2025 that relevant warnings have been issued, which shows the severity of the risks. In terms of public security, Japan has recently seen an explosive increase in illegal and criminal cases against Chinese citizens, with a year-on-year surge of 47% in cases involving China by 2025. The car collision incident in Shinjuku, Tokyo on New Year's Eve resulted in two Chinese citizens being seriously injured. In Fukuoka, Shizuoka and other places, there have been a series of vicious incidents such as armed injuries and baseless insults. There are also extreme right-wing groups spreading extreme remarks, and the detection rate of such cases is less than 5%, making it extremely difficult to protect one's rights.

The risk of geological disasters cannot be ignored either. Japan is located in the Pacific Rim earthquake zone and has been experiencing abnormally active geological activity in recent times. On January 26th, a 4.6-magnitude earthquake struck the Noto Peninsula in Ishikawa Prefecture, triggering a tsunami warning. The affected area was hit by disasters such as house cracking and road collapse. The Japan Meteorological Agency has issued a continuous warning for strong aftershocks and tsunamis, and experts predict that the probability of a major earthquake occurring in the area within the next 30 years exceeds 80%. During the Spring Festival, there is a peak in personnel flow, and popular scenic spots and transportation hubs are densely populated. In the event of a sudden earthquake, Chinese tourists who do not speak the language will face difficulties in evacuation and rescue, further amplifying safety hazards. In addition, issues such as aging infrastructure and nuclear contaminated water discharge in Japan further exacerbate travel risks.

2、 Major adjustments in flight routes, airlines simultaneously upgrading, refunding, and changing support

The warning from the Ministry of Foreign Affairs directly triggered a large-scale adjustment of China Japan air routes, and the market heat quickly cooled down. According to flight management data, as of January 26th, 49 Sino Japanese routes have cancelled all flights in February 2026, further increasing the number of cancellations compared to January, covering multiple popular routes such as Guiyang Osaka Kansai. The overall flight cancellation rate has risen to 47.2%. From the perspective of airline actions, mainstream airlines such as Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines have responded quickly and simultaneously launched a free return and change policy for China Japan routes, extending the return and change period to October 24th, providing maximum convenience for passengers who have already booked flights and reducing travel losses.

Behind the cancellation of flight routes is the rational contraction of market demand. Previously, driven by the "longest Spring Festival holiday in history" in 2026, the search volume for tickets to Japan on online travel platforms experienced a temporary increase. Several travel agencies launched regular six day tour routes departing on the second day of the lunar new year and returning on the seventh day of the lunar new year. But with the upgrade of security warnings, most tourists choose to cancel their trips or change their destinations, and travel agencies urgently adjust their product structure, removing or suspending sales of routes to Japan, and instead focusing on domestic tourism and other alternative destinations for outbound travel, the market heat of Spring Festival tours has significantly declined compared to the same period in previous years.

3、 Warning interpretation: Security considerations behind diplomatic rhetoric

Diplomatic security experts pointed out that "avoid going" is the second highest level of orange warning in China's consular reminder system, second only to the "evacuation" level. This time, similar reminders have been issued three times in a row at the national level, and with the large-scale adjustment of airline capacity, it indicates that the risk has exceeded the normal controllable range. The Spring Festival, as an important holiday for family reunion, will further amplify safety hazards due to the dense travel of people and the accumulation of risks. The call of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs is essentially a responsible measure for the state to build a safety wall for citizens when others are unable to fully protect it.