Gold and silver all open high, international oil prices soar!

In terms of the precious metal market, gold and silver opened high across the board. Although the intraday gains narrowed, the overall trend remained strong, with significant inflows of safe haven funds. As of March 2nd, London spot gold rose to $5341 per ounce, an increase of 1.21%; London spot silver was reported at $94 per ounce, up 0.48%. The futures market performed even better, with COMEX gold up 1.97% and COMEX silver up 7.77%. The domestic market kept pace with the rise, with gold T+D reporting 1187.56 yuan/gram, up 43.02 yuan, or 3.76%; Silver T+D reported 23566 yuan/kg, up 1521 yuan, up 6.90%; The Shanghai Gold Connect and Shanghai Silver Connect saw gains of 3.96% and 8.26% respectively. The physical gold market has also seen a rise in popularity, with mainstream gold stores such as Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang experiencing significant increases in gold prices, generally exceeding 3%. Investment gold bars from banks such as China Construction Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China have also risen in price, reflecting the high recognition of the safe haven value of precious metals in the market.

International oil prices have experienced a surge, with supply concerns caused by geopolitical risks becoming the core driving force behind this increase. After the opening on March 2nd, international oil prices surged significantly, with Brent crude oil prices soaring to $82.37 per barrel, up 13% from the previous trading day's closing price; The price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose as high as $75.33 per barrel, an increase of 12.4%. Analysis indicates that this round of price increase, combined with the cumulative increase brought about by the escalation of tensions earlier this year, has led to a rise of about 17% in international oil prices since the beginning of this year, with a significant increase in short-term volatility. The direct cause of the soaring oil prices is the sudden escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East - on February 28th local time, the United States and Israel launched attacks on multiple targets in Iran, and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced that no ships were allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz that night, resulting in the strait being effectively closed. As the world's most important oil transportation hub, the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20% of the world's oil transportation volume and is a necessary route for major oil producing countries in the Middle East to export crude oil. Its shipping stagnation directly triggers strong concerns in the market about global oil supply disruptions.

It is worth noting that in response to significant fluctuations in oil prices and to maintain market stability, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) issued a statement on March 1, announcing that eight major oil producing countries, including Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq, have decided to increase production by 206000 barrels per day in April. Relevant countries will flexibly adjust their production pace based on market conditions. Industry insiders analyze that this measure aims to alleviate supply concerns, but it is difficult to offset the impact of geopolitical situations in the short term, and it is expected that international oil prices will continue to maintain a high dynamic trend. In addition, the rise in oil prices this time will also be transmitted to the downstream chemical industry chain, and natural gas, methanol, urea and other varieties are expected to strengthen synchronously, thereby pushing up industrial production and manufacturing costs.

From the perspective of market drivers, the synchronous fluctuations in gold, silver, and oil prices this time are mainly caused by the chain reaction triggered by the escalation of geopolitical risks in the Middle East. On the one hand, the intensification of geopolitical tensions has led to a sharp rise in market risk aversion. Precious metals, as traditional safe haven assets, have become the preferred allocation of funds, driving up gold and silver prices; On the other hand, the oil supply concerns caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have directly pushed up international oil prices, forming a dual driven market of "safe haven+supply". In addition, the previous imposition of "equivalent tariffs" by the United States on the world has been deemed illegal, exacerbating market concerns about the US government's debt burden, while opening up space for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and providing additional benefits for gold prices.