The price of aviation fuel has doubled within the month, forcing the cancellation of flights in multiple countries!

1、 Core incentive: Aviation fuel prices double within the month, setting a temporary surge record

The direct trigger for the global 'aviation crisis' is the sharp rise in aviation kerosene prices. According to market data, the price of aviation kerosene has doubled in just one month, rapidly rising from $800/ton at the end of February to $1600/ton, far exceeding other petrochemical products such as gasoline and marine fuel, setting a record for the largest monthly increase in recent times. This skyrocketing trend has directly pushed up the operating costs of global airlines, especially for low-cost airlines whose fuel costs account for up to 35%. It is undoubtedly a heavy blow, and some airlines even face operational losses.

The sharp rise in aviation fuel prices is not accidental, but rather stems from the tight global crude oil supply situation. Affected by the escalation of the situation in the Middle East, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has almost come to a standstill, and 20% of the world's aviation kerosene needs to be transported through the strait. The obstruction of shipping directly leads to an expansion of the aviation kerosene supply gap, further driving up prices. At the same time, international crude oil prices have also risen synchronously, hovering from around $70/barrel before the conflict to around $100/barrel, coupled with a significant increase in the cracking price difference between aviation kerosene and crude oil, which has jointly created the extreme fluctuations in aviation kerosene prices this time.

2、 Crisis Reveals: Multiple Countries Cancel Flights, EU and UK Face Potential Risks

The sharp rise in aviation fuel prices and supply shortages have quickly spread to the terminal aviation market, forcing the cancellation of routes in multiple countries and severely affecting passenger travel. Among them, some routes in Vietnam, New Zealand, and the United States have become the hardest hit areas. Due to insufficient fuel supply, multiple airlines have reduced their flight numbers. Air New Zealand announced the cancellation of about 1100 flights by early May, involving about 5% of domestic and international scheduled flights, affecting about 44000 passengers; United Airlines plans to cut 5% of its scheduled flights in the second and third quarters, with a focus on canceling non peak hours and low passenger flow routes to cope with the pressure brought by soaring fuel costs.

In addition to countries where flight cancellations have already occurred, the European Union and the United Kingdom are also facing similar fuel shortage risks and are on the brink of a 'flight crisis'. According to industry analysis, with the continuous expansion of the aviation coal supply gap and the chain reaction caused by the reduction of production by Asian refineries, airlines in the European Union and the United Kingdom may face the dilemma of insufficient fuel supply. In the future, there may be large-scale flight cancellations and route adjustments, further exacerbating the chaotic situation in the global aviation market. In addition, some European airlines have had to adjust their routes, increase flight time and fuel consumption to avoid the Middle East conflict zone, further exacerbating the pressure of fuel shortages.