In March, the real estate market released a clear signal of bottoming out, and housing prices in first tier cities rebounded and stabilized collectively

1、 Bottom signal highlighted: 70 city index confirms the reversal trend of the real estate market

The release of the 70 city housing price index in March officially announced a remarkable reversal in China's real estate market, and the signal of bottoming out became increasingly clear. Previously, the domestic real estate market had undergone a long period of adjustment, with downward fluctuations in housing prices, lack of market confidence, and low trading activity becoming the norm. However, the data in March broke this pattern, especially with the comprehensive rebound in first tier cities, becoming the core force driving market recovery.

Data shows that in March, the national real estate market showed the characteristics of "core led growth and overall stabilization". Among the 70 large and medium-sized cities, the number of cities with rising prices for new and second-hand houses has significantly increased compared to the previous month, with 14 cities experiencing rising prices for new houses and 13 cities experiencing rising prices for second-hand houses, a significant increase of 11 cities compared to the previous month. This indicates that positive factors in the market are continuing to accumulate, and the recovery of the real estate market has evolved from a point breakthrough to a broader level. The collective rebound in the four major first tier cities has set a benchmark for the national real estate market, further strengthening the expectation of bottoming out.

2、 First tier cities lead gains: New and second-hand houses across the board stop falling and rebound

As a "barometer" of the real estate market, the housing prices in the four major first tier cities performed outstandingly in March, with both new and second-hand housing prices stabilizing and rising, becoming the core evidence of the bottoming out of the real estate market. Among them, the housing prices of newly-built commercial residential properties in first tier cities increased by 0.2% month on month, marking the first time since May 2025 that they have turned into an upward trend, ending the previous nine months of continuous decline, and marking the official emergence of the real estate market in first tier cities from the adjustment trough.

From the specific performance of each city, it presents a pattern of "differentiated rise, stable rise". The prices of new houses in Shanghai and Guangzhou have shown the most outstanding performance, with a month on month increase of 0.3% each, becoming the core of new house price increases in first tier cities; The price of new houses in Shenzhen has increased by 0.2% month on month, showing a clear trend of steady recovery; The price of new houses in Beijing has remained stable, although there has been no increase, it has completely shaken off the previous downward trend and achieved stabilization. At the same time, the second-hand housing market in first tier cities has rebounded more fiercely, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen achieving a general increase, further confirming the authenticity of market recovery.

3、 Behind the rebound: dual efforts of policy support and demand release

The collective rebound of housing prices in first tier cities is not accidental, but the result of the dual effects of policy support and market demand release. Since the second half of 2025, many regions across the country have intensively introduced loose policies for the real estate market, and first tier cities have gradually optimized their regulatory measures. Policies such as lifting purchase restrictions, reducing down payment ratios, and lowering mortgage interest rates have continued to ferment, effectively lowering the threshold for home purchases and activating the long accumulated demand for essential and improvement needs.

On the other hand, March coincides with the traditional "little spring" of the real estate market, coupled with the continuous release of policy benefits, the wait-and-see sentiment of homebuyers has significantly eased, and their willingness to enter the market has significantly increased. Taking Shanghai and Guangzhou as examples, the supply and demand of high-quality housing in the core sector are both strong, and the concentrated release of improved demand has driven steady increases in housing prices; Shenzhen relies on its industrial advantages to synchronize the demand for rigid demand and rigid reform, promoting an increase in market activity. In addition, the confidence of homeowners is gradually recovering, and the bargaining space is narrowing, further promoting the stabilization and rebound of housing prices.