International crude oil market: significant increase in international oil prices

1、 Strait shipping blocked, global energy channels blocked

As a crucial gateway for approximately 20% of global oil shipping, the navigation status of the Strait of Hormuz has always been a core indicator of international oil prices. Recently, the situation in the strait has been volatile, and after a brief opening, it has once again fallen into a state of tightened control. Iran has strengthened its vigilance against passing merchant ships, forcing some vessels to turn back, resulting in a significant decrease in the actual passage capacity of the strait.

The continuous obstruction of this energy artery directly affects global supply expectations. The transportation of nearly 9 million barrels of crude oil per day is facing uncertainty, and once the control is upgraded to a comprehensive blockade, it will quickly cause a global shortage of crude oil supply. Against the backdrop of continuous production cuts by OPEC+and significant depletion of global oil inventories, supply side risks have been further amplified, becoming the direct trigger for driving up oil prices.

2、 Changes in US Iran negotiations, market optimism dashed

Another key driving force behind the sharp rise in oil prices is the sharp decline in the prospects of the second round of negotiations between the United States and Iran. Previously, the market had hoped for a resumption of dialogue and easing of conflict between the two sides, leading to a temporary decline in oil prices. But on April 19th, Iran explicitly denied any plans to participate in a new round of negotiations, completely shattering the expectations of the talks.

At the same time, friction broke out between the United States and Iran in the waters of the Gulf of Oman, with the US intercepting Iranian cargo ships and firing, further exacerbating tensions. The dual signals of negotiation breakdown and conflict escalation completely shattered the market's illusion of easing the situation, and funds quickly poured into the crude oil market for hedging, driving futures prices to rise sharply.

3、 Significant surge in oil prices, coupled with financial market volatility

As of 19:15 Eastern Time on April 19th, the price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $89.85 per barrel, a significant increase of 7.16% from the previous trading day; London Brent crude oil futures rose simultaneously, reaching $95.68 per barrel, an increase of 5.86%. During the trading session, the two major contracts saw even higher gains, with WTI crude oil rising by over 8% and Brent crude oil rising by nearly 7.9%.

The sharp rise in oil prices has also triggered a chain reaction, causing global financial markets to oscillate synchronously. Affected by risk aversion and rising inflation expectations, the futures of the three major stock indexes in the New York Stock Exchange have significantly fallen by over 0.5%; International gold and silver futures prices fell by about 1.7% and 2.7% respectively, indicating a clear trend of risk aversion and reallocation of funds.

4、 Short term volatility intensifies, market closely monitors geopolitical progress

The current international oil prices have entered a stage of "geo driven, high volatility". In the short term, the trend of oil prices will depend entirely on the navigation conditions in the Strait of Hormuz and the direction of the US Iran conflict: if the control of the strait continues to tighten and the conflict further escalates, oil prices are expected to break through the 100 yuan mark; If the situation unexpectedly eases, oil prices may quickly fall back.