Gold returns to $4,800, silver breaks $80, and the precious metals bull market faces a crucial test

I. Geopolitical catalysis coupled with the return of fundamental attributes, gold has firmly stabilized at $4,800

The immediate trigger for the recent rebound in precious metals was the news that the US and Iran were suspected to be considering extending the ceasefire, injecting new risk expectations into the market. Ruth Crowell, Managing Director of the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA), made it clear that gold has always been a core safe-haven asset and reserve asset, and continues to play a key role in times of crisis.

From the perspective of market performance, spot gold reached a high of $4,836.83 per ounce during the day, and ultimately closed at $4,826.19 per ounce, up 0.75%. The support at the $4,800 mark was solid. This level is not only an important psychological threshold from a technical perspective, but also resonates with multiple factors such as the continuous gold purchases by global central banks, high geopolitical risks, and the weakening of the US dollar. The steady rise of gold once again confirms its core value of "preserving and increasing value, and quickly liquidating" in a volatile environment, and also consolidates its position as a global strategic financial reserve.

II. Silver breaks through $80, and the six-year gap triggers "squeeze" market conditions

Compared to the stability of gold, the rise of silver is more explosive. On the same day, the intraday increase in spot silver expanded to 1.90%, breaking through the $80 mark in one fell swoop, reaching a high of $80.54 per ounce, setting a new phase high. Behind this breakthrough lies the long-term accumulated structural shortage and tight inventory in the silver market, laying the groundwork for a "squeeze" situation.

According to the World Silver Survey, 2026 is predicted to be the sixth consecutive year of supply deficit in the silver market, with a total deficit expected to reach 46 million ounces. The continuous imbalance between supply and demand over the years, coupled with the decline in inventories in the London gold and silver market to a ten-year low, means that the global deliverable silver is only enough for 1.2 months of consumption, and the available days of COMEX inventories are only 3.2 days, creating conditions for significant price fluctuations. Once the market demand is concentrated and released, the situation of insufficient spot supply may be amplified, leading to a "squeeze" market situation of multiple forced liquidations, which will drive prices to further soar.

III. Dual-wheel Drive: The combination of financial and industrial attributes lays a more solid foundation for the bull market logic

The current round of precious metal price increase is not driven by a single factor, but rather the result of a dual resonance between financial attributes and industrial demand.

Financial attributes continue to strengthen: global geopolitical risks, expectations of declining interest rates, and central banks' gold purchasing trends jointly support the investment demand for gold and silver. As a traditional safe-haven asset, gold's liquidity and value-preserving properties become increasingly prominent in crises; silver, with its precious metal attributes, has become an important choice for capital allocation.

Industrial demand provides solid support: Silver is widely used in the fields of photovoltaics, new energy, AI servers, semiconductors, and more, with demand continuing to grow. By 2026, global photovoltaic installed capacity is expected to exceed 750GW, requiring over 9,000 tons of silver. The amount of silver used in new energy vehicles per vehicle is 2-3 times that of fuel vehicles, and the proportion of industrial demand is increasing, providing long-term support for silver prices.